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Harold Straughn said in August 31st, 2009 at 7:26 pm

I was writing a response and it disappeared before I could finish. I’m wondering if you received it.

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Bill T-B said in August 31st, 2009 at 7:49 pm

Sadly, no. Want to take a second crack at it?

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joel said in August 31st, 2009 at 8:10 pm

The fact that this is a Barna study automatically makes it suspect to me.

However, I do appreciate your analysis of the report. I currently live in a rural part of VA and all of my denominational churches in this area have a Sunday attendance of fewer than 50. Since I am still new to the area, it is hard to say if your observations apply to my particular locality, but I will certainly look out for it.

Quite the opposite, I used to live in L.A. and found very poor spiritual formation in a church which boasted 200+ on a Sunday morning, having no small groups through the week and only one “bible study” which focused more on current events. However, to the church’s credit the were very involved in the local community.

Any thoughts at proposed solutions? Perhaps a different view of the church – not just a place to come on Sunday morning, but rather a spiritual center of the community; perhaps like a lay-monastery?

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Harold Straughn said in August 31st, 2009 at 8:21 pm

okay. I think I’ll email it to you, and if you think it deserves some conversation, maybe you can post it here. Which email address should I use?

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Harold Straughn said in August 31st, 2009 at 8:56 pm

Bill, I want to compliment you for your helpful interest in church growth, which is especially needed among us Disciples.

My response to this blog is a dialectic one. I’m not disputing the Barna surveys or your interpretations of them. But I am asking if the opposite might also be true.

I think that’s the case.

It seems to me that the survey (and your take on it) shows an appreciation for a method that, consciously or unconsciously, chooses standards that make large churches look good and small churches look bad.

I’m wondering what would happen if we turned the tables and analyzed large churches by standards that make small churches look good.

Here are some examples of statements I’d like to see tested:

1. Are small churches more widespread demographically and socially than large churches? Can they survive in areas where large churches cannot? Perhaps a survey could test the reach of small vs. large churches in, say, crime-ridden urban areas, remote poverty-stricken mountain outreaches, centers of busy affluent types meeting in exclusive hotels, experimental and marginalized people meeting in living rooms and dorm rooms, etc. One aspect of this survey would be to measure top-down missions organized by large churches compared to percolate-up spontaneous groups of voluntary associations.

2. Do small churches have more longevity? Have they proven that they can endure for generations? What will larger new churches look like in their second, third, or fourth generations? I’d like to see a survey instrument that could measure longevity.

3. Are small churches as a whole more diverse than large churches? Maybe the following hypothesis could be tested: small churches are the true wave of the future just as they have been the wave of the past. Research could challenge the thesis of the book by Chris Anderson titled The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. It holds that big stores like Wal-Mart tend to sell many units of a limited number of products, but don’t sell many products at all with smaller clienteles. This regression towards the mean results in catering to the 50% of the public with conventional tastes, leaving opportunities for others to serve the 25% with more affluent or unusual tastes, as well as the 25% who can’t afford the big box stores. How might this theory be tested with large and small churches?

4. Can large churches exist without depending on small churches to help them? I wonder if it’s possible to track the way new ideas in theology and preaching, worship and service, are first accepted in small churches, then gradually accepted or modified by the large churches for their own use. At the other end of the demographic continuum, I wonder if there’s a way to test how ideas and programs that are discarded by the large churches as no longer meeting their needs become perfectly serviceable for smaller, less trend-oriented churches.

If my hunches are right, such surveys might enable us to interpret them by saying, “Let’s hear it for small churches! They’re the ones that give birth to the ideas and programs that later are accepted and spread by large churches. And they’re the ones that pick up after the large churches that discard perfectly good, but not perfectly trendy ministries.”

P.S.
I’ve written a new book, published by Chalice Press, that unfolds the ways individuals and cultures make major changes. It’s titled LifeSpirals: Exploring Your Ascent Through the Seven Transformations that Propel Humanity’s Dreams.

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Chris said in August 31st, 2009 at 11:16 pm

Barna has added his name to some recent house church books.

The rabbitt and the Elephant by the Dales
The House Church Book, by Wolfgang simpson.

Not having read his report, does he ask the same questions of house churches that he is pitching in these house church books? What does his smaller equation suggest about house churches?

Just asking.

Thanks for sharing.

Chris walker
EvangelismCoach.org

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Gary Fowler said in September 1st, 2009 at 1:44 am

Excellent, Bill: Not comfortable, but excellent. Our Hemet cong has been deliberately raising the bar for elders and diaconate, rather than the old pattern of lowering expectations to talk more people into accepting nominations for those roles.
Glad for the time we had in Indy. Blessings!

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Bill T-B said in September 1st, 2009 at 8:50 am

Joel, I agree that a Barna study is generally viewed with skepticism, especially in the mainline. One response about your 200+ church in LA. Barna noted that the real differences in spiritual behavior really gets noticeable in churches of 500+. Most churches that hang around the 200 AWA (avg worship attendance) are really pastoral sized churches with a pastor who’s quickly burning out. These churches generally have the characteristics, including the general lack of spiritual practices, of their smaller sibling churches.

There probably isn’t “a” solution, but many solutions. The key, though, is accountability beginning with the leadership. Until they have a solid spiritual foundation that begins with regular spiritual disciplines and inculcates personal transformation then the church is most likely to continue to languish. When Christians are expected to behave like Christians in terms of how they treat one-another (their fellow Christians) and in their personal obedience to Jesus Christ then church transformation is naturally the result.

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Bill T-B said in September 1st, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Actually, Barna first weighed in on House Church in his book Revolution. But yes, his report said that those in House Churches turned in similar practices and beliefs as those in 500+ churches.

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Bill T-B said in September 1st, 2009 at 5:23 pm

Good reflections. Although not all of these have been studied (yet), some of these have been.

1. I’m not sure what you mean by widespread demographically and socially. In general, larger churches tend to have a broader demographic within its participants than most smaller membership churches that tend to be very homogeneous. However, it is definitely true that many small churches are located where a larger church would not likely be able to be sustained. Having said that, there are a number of large churches that exist in very small towns that “should not” be able to support a large church such as Ginghamsburg UMC in Tipp City, Ohio … a very small community … indeed, the church attendance is larger than the combined residents by many, many times.

2. There are a number of “small churches” that used to be big churches many years ago and they are nearing their demise. Every day, 8-10 small churches close because they are no longer sustainable. The fact is, big or small, churches have a life cycle and eventually all of them are likely to close. As fewer endowments come to churches, and that pool is already starting to dry up, many small churches will find themselves unable to “keep the lights on.” Of course this doesn’t necessarily mean they will close, but when a “church” starts meeting twice a month, then monthly, and then less frequently, it’s sort of hard to call them “active” churches. But we Disciples continue to “count” them as such. In the end, the big churches of today will likely become similar to the struggling cathedrals of our urban centers that are struggling today.

3. This is measured regularly by denominations with the results that shows that most small churches are rather homogeneous.

4. The opposite could also be said … can small churches exist without large churches? The fact is, large or small, we’re all a part of the kingdom and just like the head can’t say to the hand “I don’t need you,” the large church can’t say to the small church “I don’t have any use for you.” The reality is, the small church, that is the under 100s, are probably here to stay. They have real staying power. And the very large churches are here to stay because they offer what small churches could never offer (and to a lesser extent, vice versa … though some large churches, such as Geist Christian, are large churches disguised as small churches). It’s the churches in the middle – the 100-350 that are in real trouble. They are nearing unsustainability in many cases, especially as they try to pay a full-time, ordained pastor.

The point Barna, and I, are making is not a “Small churches are bad and big churches are good” statements. That’s not the point. The point is, small churches by and large are not engaging spiritual life transformation of their members (as defined in the study). That’s simply a reality that cannot justifiably be sustained.

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Harold Straughn said in September 3rd, 2009 at 11:39 am

Bill,

Thanks for your helpful responses.

I’m thinking more about large churches in the aggregate and small churches in the aggregate.

You’re right that the smaller the group the less diverse it is. But taken altogether, small churches are more diverse than large churches because they can meet the specific needs of a small number of people.

I’m thinking, for example, of an ethnic church that meets the needs of people of a certain language and culture (such as Koreans here in Oklahoma City). Sometimes they start out on their own, and sometimes they are nurtured by a larger congregation that houses them (although the smaller churches often has to work their schedules around their landlord’s needs).

I don’t have the figures offhand, but I wonder if you do, regarding the number of churches of all denominations have under 100 members, compared to the number that do. I suspect that across the world, especially in countries where Christianity is a persecuted minority, churches must of necessity be small or even secret. I consider these our frontline most heroic churches. They serve as inspiration to our larger churches in demographic areas where it’s relatively easy to be a Christian.

I don’t know the number of new small churches that are starting up compared to the number that are closing, but there must be something like an equilibrium, or else the church would have been extinct centuries ago.

Anyway, I think Barna’s research has touched a vital nerve regarding the way the gospel must be understood, and churches of all sizes and in all places must be honored.

My reaction was to the hidden assumptions that kept the Barna survey from being a truly helpful guide to the strengths and limitations of small and large churches. I can see their built-in need to publicize results that please their clients, who are mostly large churches.

I’m a newcomer to your list, so if this is a conversation that’s been done before, let me know and I’ll go to your archives and catch up.

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Bill T-B said in September 3rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm

Someone once said that God must like small churches, since he made so many of them. And certainly they are a significant part of the Kingdom’s work. However, in North America your thought on “equilibrium” isn’t accurate for today’s culture. Although at one time we were a nation of church planters, that time has come and gone. At the moment, we are planting slightly more churches than we’re closing, but when compared to the population growth, Christianity is losing ground pretty rapidly (if you haven’t seen the ARIS study, it makes for interesting and painful reading: http://www.americanreligionsurvey-aris.org/reports/ARIS_Report_2008.pdf). Church growth, by and large, is being seen disproportionately in larger churches rather than in smaller churches.

I don’t know of any denomination that has “only” small churches, but in the Mainline the large church to small church ratio (large = 500+ in average worship attendance – membership, “participating” or not, means nothing) is hundreds to one. However, of those 8-10 churches that are closing each day, almost none of them are “large” churches, so the ratio is dropping … very slowly.

There is a distinction that I think needs to be made here, though. When I speak about small and large membership churches, I exclude house churches, market place churches, and most (but not all) of the emerging models of church from the conversation. These are a radically different model and most have relatively short life spans for a number of reasons. Further, most denominations haven’t quite figured out whether or not these models are really “legitimate” and so rarely count them anyway.

Churches in non-Western nations that are growing and reproducing rapidly are really not concomitant to anything we are doing here. Of the nations where rapid multiplication of churches is occurring, a significant majority of the growth is coming from house churches and cell models. In China, recently, a study was made and the average house church was multiplying as often as every four months. In the US, if a house church multiplies more than once it’s considered a fairly significant achievement … and those multiplying more than once in a year is yet a rarity. All that’s to say that what’s working “over there” isn’t working here … and probably won’t in the foreseeable future. The Western church has a black eye to overcome that churches in non-Western nations don’t have to deal with. Christendom is a significant barrier to evangelism, church growth, and church planting movements here.

Finally, as for who takes Barna seriously and his “audience,” it’s probably a fallacy that his largest following are those in large churches. Indeed, the last several books he has published have been a pretty hard slap at the established church – and large churches were not immune from the blows. Indeed, Barna is a part of the house church movement himself, and has been for several years. That’s not the kind of politically “correct” move for someone who’s often accused of pandering to the Willow Creeks, Ginghamsburg, or Ray of Hopes. Barna’s “agenda” is more about helping the “church” see the reality of the culture we live in (and have helped create) than he is promulgating a particular viewpoint (with the possible exception of his house church views). I’ve been with George and his staff over the years and his commitment to the “church” as opposed to any particular brand or style or model or denomination appears to be both heartfelt and genuine. I am saddened by many in the Mainline who dismiss his findings, generally without bothering to actually read them, just because they came from “Barna.” Even if his findings were skewed in some way, the general “gist” of what he’s reported has virtually always been pretty spot on. We needn’t necessarily embrace his commentary, but we should at least be looking seriously at the numbers. As long as we (I speak as one of those Mainliners) dismiss surveys, polls, studies, research, and statistics because the findings make us uncomfortable or we think they’re theologically divergent from our view or we find some fault with the methodology (etc.), we will continue to operate as if we weren’t loosing around 1 million participants from our churches every year. But the fact is, we are and have been for several years. Not one Mainline denomination is showing growth on North American soil and most of those 8-10 church closings each day are “ours.”

I enjoy the opportunity to engage the dance, so thanks for your thoughts and reflections. You make a great dance partner. And no, I don’t think I’ve addressed some of this in past posts – though some of my responses have been long enough to be posts in and of themselves :-)

btb

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Harold Straughn said in September 3rd, 2009 at 4:06 pm

Bill,

Thanks for clarifying my misimpressions on a number of areas, particularly the Barna “agenda.” My misinformation comes more from people who interpret the Barna findings as pointing to some specific direction for church growth which may or may not succeed.

To come clean, my own “agenda” has to do with the stages of spiritual growth, which sometimes track with numerical growth, but usually are far out in front. The new ideas that break through to bring numerical growth often take years and sometimes generations to germinate. The more advanced ones that I see, which I identify in my book, “LifeSpirals,” currently are affecting less than 1% of the American public, the “Cultural Creatives” who will increase to call the tunes over the next couple of generations.

For me, all the churches of all sizes represent a spiritual continuum. I don’t see much benefit in excluding the sources of ferment while including the churches that are on the decline. And I don’t see much benefit in separating Christianity in Europe, North America, South America, Africa, and Asia into compartments with their own sets of rules.

Some see Europe as a place of decline because they use church attendance as a measure. I prefer to see Europe as a sign of a hopeful global future because their social conscience is keener than ours, as is indicated by their non-profit taxpayer-based care for the poor and the ill, compared to our for-profit shareholder-based approach.

Some also see the Third World as a separate entity because they are generations behind North America in the establishment of the church, and they can be predicted to level off and decline just like we are at some point in the future. I disagree, and see the growth of the church in North America dependent on missionaries from the Third World coming here to show us how. Already this is the case among Roman Catholic priests.

If anything, the one lesson the future can teach us is that the future cannot teach us any lessons. We merely project numbers into the future, and then say that if the trends continue in that direction, the trends will continue in that direction.

Based on these assumptions, the trends in church attendance during the American Revolutionary War, which were below 10 percent, meant the death of the church. Instead, two major Great Awakenings and several major waves of revival and social concern exploded over the next 100 years.

Who knew?

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Bill T-B said in September 4th, 2009 at 5:27 pm

I “hear” your agenda and generally agree with you. I’ve found that the primary flaw in the “Church Growth Movement,” from the McGavran and Arn age, was that they made a presumption (wrongly) that they were generally dealing with churches that had strong spiritual underpinnings. When a congregation is blessed with church leaders who have a deep foundation based on spiritual maturity – and I don’t just mean the staff, I mean all the church leaders from general committee members, Sunday school teachers, and the nursery attendants to the board chair – then adding growth “programming” and “marketing” and so on will indeed bring lasting growth as advertised. But until the church’s leadership has that foundation, then the hope of persistent, lasting church growth is futile. Certainly, any church consultant can come in and “sell” the congregation on a particular program that will indeed produce a spurt of growth. However, if there is not a strong spiritual foundation in the congregation on which to build, those folks who have entered the church through those programs will only hang around for twelve to eighteen months before they realize that the congregation is as spiritually bankrupt as they are … and they will drift away disillusioned and unlikely to return to any church for another round of disappointment.

Which is why I am so disheartened by the recent Barna study … that by and large, the smaller churches are doing an inadequate job of discipling their members. Without that discipleship, there is little hope that these small churches will do anything more than languish and eventually have to close their doors.

I do agree with you that making pronouncements about the future based on current statistics is dicey. If we could count on those kinds of predictions, the economy would be in really great shape … if we used 1999 figures to project today’s reality. On the other hand, what I tend to see is church leaders recklessly dismissing findings such as these and so effectively stick their heads in the sand and hope that things will turn around. Hope is not a strategy and denial is not a river in Egypt. Unless something happens pretty soon, for instance, the Disciples of Christ (my tribe) will be unable to sustain the General Church structures … if it’s even salvageable at all. Already the Regional Church structures are reeling and several are facing bankruptcy. The local church has been hard hit by the economy … and the trickle up of funding for judicatory structures is drying up. But if the truth be told, the hardest hit of all is yet to come. The average age in most Disciples churches is between blue-grey and bald. Take a look out over the worship space on any given Sunday morning in most of these smaller membership churches and you’ll realize it’s pretty hard not to project what the future is likely to look like in ten to fifteen years: most of the current congregation will no longer be there. Sure, something might change. But like I said, hope isn’t a strategy.

And so, ultimately, you and I are in some ways singing the same tune. If the church – big or small – is going to be a vital, life transforming, body of Christ, it’s going to have to get serious with the spiritual maturity and disciple-making processes. That was the whole point of my original post … and is actually the bottom line of almost every post I’ve ever written (and the books, articles, etc.). Without that spiritual foundation, the church is just another membership-driven non-profit, one that is little different from the Rotary, Lions, Elks, Optimists, Kiwanis, etc. They’re nice clubs doing nice things, but they’re not the body of Christ.

Again, thanks for your insights. God stuff there. And good stuff too.

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